Vector's March 21, 2008 forecast of material requirements and supply chain analysis of armor procurement for US military ground vehicles is ready for immediate purchase and shipment!
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This report provides a forecast of materials required to meet the Department of Defense's annual procurement rate of armor for military ground vehicles.
- It also provides an analysis of the supply chain that produces military ground vehicle armor and materials consumed in the production of that armor.
- The forecast covers a time horizon of 2006 to 2013.
- This forecast addresses armor content only of military ground vehicles purchased by the DoD for deployment by US military services. The forecast does not predict material used in the construction of other vehicle components such as hulls, suspensions, engines, weapon system, electronics, etc.
- This report forecasts the amount in pounds (weight) and market value in US dollars of materials used in the production of armor for military ground vehicle.
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Refinements Incorporated in the March 2008 Release:
- All vehicle counts and armor kit counts are now based on our December 2007 procurement forecast (rather than our July 2007 forecast).
- We refined our HMMWV Frag Kit 6 armor design assumptions based on the latest available intelligence and we have lowered the total 2008 procurement quantity for this kit.
- We moved LTAS incorporation within FMTVs from late 2007 into mid 2008.
- We incorporated LTAS implementation (and thus A and B kits armor) into HEMTT (A4) new vehicle production mid 2008. We have also implementation LTAS on the HEMTT Extended Service Program mid 2008.
- We assume that all tactical wheeled vehicles built to LTAS requirements incorporate the use of thicker transparent armor (ballistic glass) to meet increased threat levels.
- We refined our armor design assumptions for EFP protection for MRAP vehicles. We have increased the areal density of this protection, added a significant fiber reinforced composite component, and reduced the use of P-900 armor plate within this armor kit.
- In addition to delaying JLTV low rate initial procurement by one year, we have also adjusted the size of this vehicle based on information available on prototypes, and we have refined our armor design assumptions.
- We have increased the base vehicle armor protection on MRAP vehicles currently being manufactured.
- We incorporated and / or increased the use of titanium within several armor designs.
- We refined our armor design assumptions for reactive armor tile kits, for Stryker modular / bolt-on armor, and for ASV modular / bolt-on armor.
- Our November 2007 forecast started to conservatively incorporate composite armor components on all tactical wheeled vehicles starting in 2008. In this forecast we have not started that transition until 2010 (with the exception of the “B” armor kit on the HEMTT A4).
Conclusions from Material Requirements and Supply Chain Report:
- Vector Strategy projects that $9 billion of material will be required for the procurement of armor for military ground vehicles between 2008 and 2013 (six years inclusive). This includes steel, aluminum, ceramics, composites, transparent armor, and more.
- Material requirements in fiscal year 2008 represent a surge market due to MRAP vehicle armor procurement and EFP protection for HMMWV’s and MRAP’s.
- Vector projects that the material market for armor for military ground vehicles will decline 2011 to 2012 timeframe, but then grow in 2013 and beyond due to JLTV and FCS MGV armor and a transition from lower cost metallic armor solutions to higher cost non-metallic armor solutions.
- In 2008, Vector projects that metals represent 62% of total material requirements (by weight), non-metals represent 22%, and transparent armor represents 16%. These proportions change significantly by 2013 to reflect a transition to non-metallic based armor solutions.
- In 2008, armor procurement for light tactical vehicles drive 33% of material requirements, armor for mine protected vehicles and MRAP’s drive 35% of material requirements, armor procurement for combat vehicles drive 17% of material requirements, and armor for medium and heavy tactical vehicles drive 12% of requirements.
Questions Answered in This Report:
- How much steel plate and aluminum plate will be required annually FY08 to FY13 to fulfill armor procurement for military ground vehicles?
- What vehicle platforms and armor programs are driving FY08 material requirements and how does that change through 2013?
- How is demand for MRAP’s and EFP protection affecting material requirements for armor for military ground vehicles?
- What are the sales and market share of leading armor manufacturers?
- Who are the major suppliers of material for armor for military ground vehicles?
- Where are the likely material bottlenecks and backlogs / shortages in the armor supply chain?
- What percentage of composites used in armor applications are reinforced with high performance glass fibers, aramid fibers, and HMPE fibers?
- How does the use of ceramics in armor for military ground vehicle change from 2006 to 2013 and what is Vector’s prediction of aluminum oxide versus silicon carbide use in armor for military ground vehicles?
Materials Addressed in This Report:
- Steel Armor Plate
- Aluminum Armor Plate
- Titanium
- Depleted Uranium
- Other Metals (Such As P-900 Cast Steel Plate)
- Transparent Armor (I.e. Ballistic Glass)
- Ceramic Powder and Ceramic Tiles
- Composites
- Materials Used in the Construction of Composites Such as Resin, High Performance Glass Fibers, Aramid Fibers, and HMPE Fibers.
- Miscellaneous Other Materials
Report Format
The report is provided in an electronic format (PDF) with full text commentary and is shipped to clients on a CDROM and via email. All data tables are provided in the PDF document.
Complimentary to your report purchase is 4 hours of consulting time that may be used for telephone conference calls with our staff. This time may be used to discuss the report, seek clarifications, and answer specific questions.
Download a report brochure and order form (PDF format)
Download sample pages to preview the report (PDF format).
Methodology
Vector Strategy engages in both primary and secondary research to gather armor market intelligence.
We have developed armor design assumptions for both armor kits and integral vehicle armor and we have developed a forecast model to allow for design changes in these assumptions on an annual basis from 2006 to 2013.
Our model can reflect an evolution in armor design at the armor package or vehicle level.
To make our projections, we have estimated the total weight of armor deployed on each vehicle, the technology and construction utilized to construct that armor, and the weight of each material within the armor system.
Delivery and Price
This report will be published at least twice per year and the following publication schedule has been met or is planned:
November 2007: First publication completed.
March 2008: Second release completed.
November 2008: Third release scheduled.
March 2009: Fourth release scheduled.
Vector Strategy may offer additional releases if industry events warrant an update. An annual subscription to this forecast is $6,495 for a single site license and $9,745 for an enterprise wide license. Purchases may be made via check, credit card, or EFT. Payment terms are 30 days and proof of payment approval must be provided before the report will be shipped to purchasers. Please contact our office at 910-420-2208 for more information or complete and fax back the order form on the last page of the report brochure. Please call or email us to initiate an order.
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