The next release of Vector Strategy's Armor Procurement Forecast for US Military Ground Vehicles will be published August 27, 2008.
The August 2008 release will present two forecast scenarios for armor procurement:
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One scenario will reflect a steady-state or "competitive" DoD budget environment where the majority of current priorities, future programs, and modernization initiatives receive funding consistent with currently anticipated milestones and goals.
- The second scenario will reflect a more austere or "retrenched" DoD budget environment where priorities and programs face funding constraints.
- These two scenarios will be driven by different assumptions for troop deployment, DoD budget constraints, supplemental funding levels, and vehicle procurement priorities. The assumptions used for each scenario will be clearly explained. In addition, the horizon of our forecast will be extended from 2013 to 2015 in this release.
Download the table of contents and sample pages of the April 2008 forecast here.
Companies interested in purchasing the forecast can review our report brochure and fax us a completed order form or call us at 910-420-2208.
This forecast is an analysis of US military ground vehicle armor procurement for FY05 to FY15.
- Combat wheeled and tracked vehicles, as well as all tactical vehicles are addressed in this report.
- Vehicle requirements from all US military departments and defense agencies are included.
- The forecast also provides full descriptions of vehicle armor programs, including history of the vehicle / armor program and planned upgrades.
- Publicly available armor design elements and related contractors and suppliers are also provided.
Download a report brochure and order form (PDF format).
Conclusions from Vector's April 2008 US Military Ground Vehicle Armor Forecast:
- Vector Strategy projects that $21 billion of armor for US military ground vehicles will be procured by the Department of Defense for US military forces between 2008 and 2013 (six years inclusive).
- Specific vehicle and armor programs driving FY08 and FY09 armor procurement include new up-armored HMMWV procurement, Frag Kit #6 for HMMWVs, base vehicle protection for MRAPs, EFP protection for MRAPs, LTAS implementation on FMTVs and HEMTT A4s, new Stryker vehicle procurement and survivability enhancements, and Abrams and Bradley Urban Survival Kits.
- Vector Strategy sees FY10 as a year of transition between the peak armor procurement of FY07 to FY09 and the more “steady-state” procurement rate of FY11 to FY13.
- 33% of total military ground vehicle armor procurement funds armor for light tactical vehicles such as HMMWVs in FY08; medium and heavy tactical vehicles represent 15% of total armor procurement; ASVs, MRAP, and other mine protected vehicles account for 27% of armor spending in FY08; and combat vehicles, such as the Stryker, Bradley, and Abrams, account for 25% of FY08 armor procurement.
- Vector forecasts additional armor procurement for FY09 to FY13 (above the DoD's base budget for those years) to address the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) assumption that US military personnel will continue to be deployed in contingency operations through 2013, to fund additional sustainment of combat vehicles, to provide applique armor to increase the protection level of tactical vehicles, to support "Grow The Force" initiatives, and to complete equipment reset efforts.
Questions Answered in This Report:
- How much armor will the DoD procure annually FY08 to FY15 for military ground vehicles?
- How will supplemental funding and GWOT requests affect armor procurement FY09 to FY15?
- When will LTAS be implemented on FMTVs, HEMTTs, and other tactical vehicles?
- For which vehicles is the US Army procuring EFP protection and how many kits will be procured?
- What is the US Army’s planned procurement of the new ECV2 HMMWV models in their base budgets and how many of these vehicles is Vector predicting will be procured with supplemental funding?
- When does Vector project that JLTV and FCS MGV armor procurement begin and in what quantities?
- How will FCS Spinouts and the need to make Strykers, Abrams, and Bradley vehicles compatible with FCS brigades drive armor upgrades for these vehicles?
- What type of armor upgrades are planned for the Stryker, the LAV, the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, and the Abrams tank?
- Which vehicle platforms are likely candidates for Active Protection Systems?
- What are the nine DoD initiatives that Vector is monitoring closely in 2008 and what are the affects of these initiatives on future armor procurement?
Ground Vehicle Armor Programs Addressed in This Report:
- All variants of the HMMVW and related armor kits, including requirements from the U.S. Army, USMC, Air Force, and other U.S. procurement agencies.
- MRAP Vehicles
- Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles (FMTV) - Truck armor and armored cabs
- USMC Medium Tactical Vehicle Replacement (MTVR) and Logistics Vehicle System Replacement (LVSR)
- Family of Heavy Tactical Vehicles (FHTV) - Truck armor and armored cabs, also including HEMTT, PLS, HET, fuel tanker and construction equipment armor kits.
- Armored Security Vehicles
- Bradley Fighting Vehicles (upgrades, BRAT)
- Stryker Vehicles (new builds, SLAT, SRAT)
- M113 Armored Personnel Carrier Family of Vehicles
- Abrams Tank (upgrades, ARAT, TUSK)
- Light Armored Vehicle (LAV-A2, LAV-25, LAV PIP / SLEP)
- Future Combat System Manned Ground Vehicles (FCS MVG)
- Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTV)
- Marine Personnel Carrier (MPC)
- See our report brochure or sample pages for a complete list of vehicles and armor programs covered in this forecast.
Report Format
The report is provided in an electronic format (PDF) with full text commentary and is shipped to clients on a CDROM. All data tables will be provided in the PDF document.
Complimentary to your report purchase is 4 hours of consulting time that may be used for telephone conference calls with our staff or onsite meetings (travel expenses billed in addition). This time may be used to discuss the forecast, seek clarifications, and answer specific questions.
Download a report brochure and order form (PDF format).
OR
Download sample pages to preview the report (PDF format).
Methodology
Vector Strategy analyses DoD, Army, Navy, USMC, and Air Force fiscal year regular and supplemental budget requests, as well as congressional actions and budget releases throughout the year.
We also gather military program office communication regarding specific armor programs during conferences, in press releases and industry publications, as well as track congressional testimony regarding vehicle and armor programs.
We monitor contract awards, access contract documents, and adjust our procurement forecast based on actual contract quantities and contract costs.
Finally, we review vehicle and armor build rates of manufacturers to determine current production volumes to validate our estimate of current market size and estimate backlog and lead times.
Delivery and Price
This forecast will be published three times in 2008:
- The first publication was released in April 2008 after the Department of the Army, Navy, Air Force and USMC each release their Fiscal Year 2009 Base Budget Estimates and Justifications.
- We anticipate a mid year (August 2008) update to address FY09 Supplemental Budget Requests.
- A third publication will be released in Nov-Dec 2008 after the Congressional Conference Report on the DoD 2009 Appropriations Act and the DoD 2009 Authorization Act is signed or released to the public in the fourth quarter of 2008.
The following publication schedule has been met or is planned:
April 2007: First publication completed.
July 2007: Second release completed.
December 2007: Third release completed.
April 2008: Fourth release completed.
August 2008: Fifth release scheduled.
Nov-Dec 2008: Sixth release scheduled.
Vector Strategy may offer additional releases if industry events warrant an update. Actual publication dates are dependent on DoD budget release dates and Congressional action at year end.
An annual subscription to this forecast is $4,995 for a single site license and $7,495 for an enterprise wide license. Purchases may be made via check, credit card, or EFT. Payment terms are 30 days and proof of payment approval must be provided before the report will be shipped to purchasers. Please contact our office at 910-420-2208 for more information or complete and fax back the order form on the last page of the report brochure. Please call or email us to initiate an order.
Download a report brochure and order form (PDF format)
OR
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